At Shinhan Daiwa Brokerage our macroeconomic studies allow us to offer regular predictions and estimations of forthcoming events, modifications, and future paths according to financial data and market tendencies. In addition, we expand our studies by keeping a long-term viewpoint.
Here are the main indicators that we consider for macroeconomic research:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – It is the key indicator that shows the conditions of the national economy. The GDP is formed of the following: GDP = C + I + S + E – M, where C is consumption, I – investment, S – government spending, E – export, and M – import.
Interest Rate – particularly the interest rates of major economies (US, European countries, Japan) are important in assessing the future economic conditions.
Retail sales – In the US, the index shows the change in the volume of sales in the retail trade. It includes two parts: the “car sales” and “sells of the rest.” In the UK, the indicator shows the level of consumption. In Japan, the indicator shows the variations in the level of sales, consumer spending, and demand.
PMI – The indicator reflects the level of business activity in the industrial sector. In the Eurozone, the PMI index is calculated since 1999. In the US, there is Chicago PMI, in Japan, it is known as the Tankan index. PMI is published each month, while the Tankan appears quarterly.
We also consider additional indexes that are general, national, regional or international: Nonfarm Payrolls – NFP, ISM Indicator (US), Producer Price Index – PPI, The number of applications for unemployment benefits (USA), Consumer Confidence Index (US), new home sales, existing home sales (USA), IFO survey (Europe), and more.